The New Jersey online casino market is a model of consistency. A model of consistent growth. But not all of the NJ online casino operators can make the same claim.
During the last 18 months, one operator, in particular, has become well known for its volatility: Caesars.
Since October 2016, Caesars online casino and poker rooms have averaged just over $3.5 million in monthly revenue. And during that 18-month span, there have been six months in which Caesars NJ revenue tally has been more than 10 percent above or below that average.
The chart below highlights how rare it is for Caesars monthly online revenue to line up with its trend line, with just seven months close to the trend line.
Additionally, Caesars can go from good month to bad month in the blink of an eye*.
A perfect representation of the casino’s volatility can be seen in its two most recent revenue numbers, February and March 2018.
In February, Caesars tallied $3.2 million, a full 10 percent below its average. In March, Caesars’ revenue soared to $4.4 million, some 20 percent above its average.
And the February-March seven-figure swing isn’t a one-time occurrence.
From July to September 2017, Caesars’ online revenue went on a rollercoaster ride:
- July 2017: $3,213,194
- August 2017: $4,447,519
- September 2017: $3,422,585
*One possible explanation for this could be the use of higher volatility slots.
Caesars NJ online casino sticks out from the crowd
Suffice it to say, Caesars’ ups and downs don’t match up with the industry.
In its four-and-a-half year history, the industry has yet to suffer a single month of declining year-over-year revenue, with consistent double-digit Y/Y growth. Furthermore, the revenue bumps and slides follow a consistent U-shaped pattern.
As seen in the chart below, the New Jersey online casino market undergoes a seasonal bump in March.
March sets the stage for the rest of the year, and every year the bump goes higher and higher. The high-water month of March is followed by a downward trend from April-June, before once again rising in July. Unlike the market, there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to Caesars’ swings.
The chart also shows that unlike the Caesars’ trend line, the market (especially recently) closely follows the trend line.
Caesars has one area of consistency
NJ online poker has been the one area of consistency for Caesars.
Unfortunately, poker only accounts for about 15 percent of Caesars’ monthly online gaming revenue
In the chart below, Caesars’ total online gaming and online casino revenue looks like a mountain range, while online poker revenue has the appearance of ordered steps.
Another unfortunate aspect of Caesars’ online poker is its current downward trend. However, that trend should start reversing now that Caesars NJ online poker sites — WSOP.com NJ and 888 Poker — are sharing online poker players with its Nevada site and 888 players in Delaware.
Caesars NJ will see a bump in online poker revenue, but whether it gets them back to 2016 revenue numbers ($650,000) or 2015 numbers ($800,000) is the big question.
If Caesars poaches existing online poker players it will be the former. If the addition of Nevada and Delaware can grow the New Jersey online poker market — reactivating former players and drawing in new players — it could be the latter.
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