Giants’ odds of toppling the Cowboys present a tall task for Week 5

Written By Dave Bontempo on October 8, 2020 - Last Updated on October 11, 2020

New York Giants fans see a winless team preparing to invade the 1-3 Dallas Cowboys on Sunday (4:25 p.m. EST, CBS).

The NJ sports betting crowd sees something else.

They observe the G-Men as the NFC East leader against the spread at 2-2. And they’re getting a bulging +9 against the host Dallas Cowboys at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Giants’ odds are +295 on the moneyline. The number is +370 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

At least, as of 7 p.m. EST.

Being division rivals, the two franchises are extremely familiar with one another. However, the Giants’ last victory over the Cowboys came in 2016, making it six straight wins for Dallas.

DraftKings has the over-under at 54.

This will be an intriguing angle in itself.

So far this season, the Giants have not played in a game that exceeded 50 points. The last three Dallas games have totaled 126 points. Will the Cowboys defense coax the Giants into a shootout, or can the Giants defense keep this game a low-scoring affair?

Here are some betting overviews of the game.

Dallas bettors are losing against the spread

These are the same Cowboys who were torched by the Cleveland Browns 49-38 in NFL Week 4. And if we total up the last three games, it averages out to 42 points per game.

Dallas has not covered the point spread in a single game this season and continues to be over-bet.

That’s what happens to so-called “public” teams who, by reputation, attract the interest of casual bettors to go with the serious players. The San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots could be included on the same list, at least during recent years.

Cowboys fresh off a meltdown against the Browns

Dallas disappointed the majority of FanDuel Sportsbook bettors on Sunday.

Dallas had 81% of the bets and 78% of the handle as a 3.5-point favorite. The Cowboys also took 60% of the moneyline action. Bettors who looked elsewhere, however, did cash in on the Cowboys.

The combination of a great offense and no defense is a dream for gamblers betting the over.

The over bettors rejoiced Sunday as the over 55.5 came roaring home.

This is one area in which the Cowboys have been strong. Their last three games have gone over — way over:

  • 79 points when they played the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2
  • 69 points in a Week 3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks
  • A whopping 87 on Sunday versus the Cleveland Browns

It’s been cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching for the over bettors who rode this explosion.

The Dallas-Cleveland game was not only the highest-scoring NFL game this season but surpassed last year’s highest. That would be the 82 points notched between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans in the playoffs. Kansas City won, 51-31.

The Giants not scoring is a problem

On the flip side, the Giants played well enough to win against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4. They covered as 13.5-point underdogs across the major NJ sportsbook apps, but also suffered a disappointing 17-9 setback.

Here’s the problem: They can’t find the end zone without a GPS.  The Giants have not scored a touchdown since Week 2.

And their season-high total of 16 points came in a Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 26-16. Total up the first four weeks, and the G-Men have a -49-point differential.

And they are playing a team that outscored them 72-35 in two meetings last season.

Quarterback Daniel Jones has not thrown a touchdown in three games. By contrast, 43-year-old Tom Brady threw five of them on Sunday, when his Buccaneers defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 38-31.

What held the Giants back Sunday was the absence of open receivers and Jones holding the ball too long. He played much better against the Rams than he had against other teams, but the old bugaboo — a backbreaking interception — did him in again. Late in the game, Jones got the Giants to the Los Angeles 23 and looked ready to run for a first down, but he changed his mind and threw an off-balance pass. It was picked; game over.

There are mitigating factors for Jones, of course. The loss of running back Saquon Barkley took away his best offensive weapon.

The Giants defense was strong versus the Rams

Will the effort carry over against the Cowboys?

The Giants held the potent Rams to a pedestrian 240 yards and outgained them by 45 yards. This is the same Rams team that scored 29 second-half points against the Buffalo Bills one week earlier.

The Rams offense is very good. Yet the Giants won the time of possession and churned out more first downs.

The Rams are a common opponent for the Giants and Cowboys. They beat Dallas 20-17 in Week 1.

It would be easy to consider the Cowboys offense almost invincible after quarterback Dak Prescott surpassed 450 yards for the third straight week, an NFL record.

But the numbers are mildly deceiving. Many of them came after the Cowboys were down 41-14.

There is a lot to go over before 4:25 p.m. Sunday.

Photo by Frank Franklin II
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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, a multiple national award-winning boxing commentator and writer, authors NFL betting columns for the Press of Atlantic City and IGaming Player, among others. He writes significantly about the emerging world of legal New Jersey sports betting.

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