NFL Week 16 Betting Trends: Eagles vs Cowboys – The People Have Spoken

Posted on December 20, 2019

What is a 7 and 7, besides a cocktail? It’s a foundation for the party deciding the NFC East, and the Eagles Cowboys betting trends are all over the place.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys will drink to their position atop the division before their NFL Week 16 showdown in Philadelphia.

Both teams are entering the week with 7-7 records, bad enough to ruin most seasons. Yet each are one win away from clinching the division (Dallas) or reaching the brink of it (Philadelphia).

Eagles Cowboys Betting Trends – Week 16

Dallas ranges between a 2.5- and 3-point favorite at major sportsbooks. FanDuel Sportsbook shows Dallas receiving 81% of the tickets and 87% of the revenue in the overall market, while SugarHouse Sportsbook reveals a similar absence of faith by Eagles fans in their own back yard.

Matt Stetz PlaySugarHouse

Matt Stetz, the COO of Rush St. Interactive, which operates PlaySugarHouse in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, talked about the current betting trends.

“The Eagles are seeing a tiny 22% of bets right now across all markets. The line opened at Philadelphia +2.5 and is now +3. The Eagles have only 27 of the moneyline tickets.”

Public sentiment often becomes a good forecast for an NFL contest, but with these teams one never knows. Dallas received little public backing last week but delivered a thundering 44-21 triumph over the Los Angeles Rams, snapping a three-gaming losing streak. 

Philadelphia scrambled to top the feisty Washington Redskins 37-27 with two touchdowns in the last 30 seconds, including the Cinderella Cover via defensive touchdown on the game’s final play. But until that bizarre finish, the Eagles were going to fail in their betting role of favorites, despite having nearly overwhelming wagering support.

The Cowboys have better skill position players in quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott and wide receiver Amari Cooper.

Philadelphia has a streaky Carson Wentz at quarterback and an excellent tight end in Zach Ertz, but its depleted wide receiving corps becomes a major focus in this battle. The Eagles have a modest two-game win streak.

Key intangibles for this game and the Eagles Cowboys betting trends, regards the shoulder of Prescott, who was limited in practice after being hit to the ground in Week 15. He has never missed a game for Dallas, but would turn this game in Philadelphia’s direction if he’s less than full health.

As weird as their seasons have been, the Eagles and Cowboys have played in the neighborhood of projected form.

Before the season, William Hill Sportsbook listed the Dallas over-under win total at 9 and the Cowboys looked poised to run roughshod with the over after starting 3-0.  But they are 4-7 since.

The Cowboys can obtain a push on that bet by winning out against the Eagles and Redskins. The Eagles over-under win total was 10, but with an over payout of -165 so prohibitive it prompted wagering on the under, at +145. The under was crowned awhile ago.  The Eagles will fall below expectations either by one game or a couple.

When the teams met as 3-3 frontrunners, the Cowboys thumped the Eagles 37-10 in October.

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SugarHouse Sentiment

So we know all about the Eagles Cowboys betting trends, what about the rest?

Stetz said the most popular bets at PlaySugarHouse include the Kansas City Chiefs, at -6, recording 91% of the action against the now-eliminated Chicago Bears in Chicago.

The New Orleans Saints, who have scored 80 points in their last two games, also take 91% of the play as a 2.5-point road favorite in Tennessee, where the Titans will be playing for their season after losing to the Houston Texans last week.

What about point totals?

The Texans, now 9-6, take a one-game AFC South lead into their appearance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The visiting Texans are a 3.5-point favorite against the Bucs, who fashion the human over in Jameis Winston.

The Bucs quarterback has more than 400 passing yards in two consecutive outings, along with four interceptions, including one for a Pick 6, helping Tampa Bay games deliver monstrous totals. Four of the last five Tampa Bay games have gone over 50 points.

This becomes the highest PlaySugarHouse over/under of the week, sitting at 50.5 and 65% of the tickets are on the over.

Top moneyline bets come in at 97% for the Seattle Seahawks over the Arizona Cardinals, the Baltimore Ravens against the Cleveland Browns and the Kansas Chiefs over the Chicago Bears. Seattle is a 9.5-point favorite, Baltimore lays 10 points on the road and Kansas City is -6 against the Bears, who have nothing to play for.

How times have changed. The Ravens are 10-point pick against the last team to beat them. That was back in September, when Cleveland topped Baltimore 40-25. Baltimore has since racked up a league-leading 10-game winning streak, while Cleveland has gone 4-6 and will miss the playoffs. The Ravens, destined to be the No. 1 AFC seed, average a league-best of nearly 34 points a game, by far the best in the league.

The Saints have provided the biggest line movement at most books, opening at -1.5 and drifting up to between –2.5 and -3 against the Titans. New Orleans also obtains 95 % of the tickets and 91% of the revenue at FanDuel sportsbook. It will be interesting to see which Titans team shows up. Will it be the club that won four straight to become 8-5 or the error-prone unit beaten by Houston last weekend?

New Orleans is not as explosive on the road as it is in the Superdome.

The Pittsburgh Steelers receive three-quarters of the PlaySugarHouse tickets and 65 percent of the moneyline when visiting the New York Jets in must-win mode Saturday. The Steelers are -3.5 and also have 86 percent of the handle at FanDuel. The Jets showed life, despite losing to Baltimore 42-21 last week.

Draft Kings has Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite against the host Miami Dolphins. It also has the host Minnesota Vikings at -5.5, up from 4.5, against the Green Bay Packers Monday Night. The explosive Packers have only put up 21 and 20 points in their last two games, while the Vikings just tallied 39 in their last win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Packers lead the Vikings by one game in the NFC North.

DraftKings has the New York Giants as a 2-point underdog in Washington with the expected return of quarterback Daniel Jones. Eli Manning got New York bettors two covers and an outright moneyline win over the past two weeks.

FanDuel Fuel

The public does not view Miami and one-win Cincinnati as the game depicted on the line. They have seen it as an opportunity to wager on the Dolphins at 88% of the tickets and 86% of the revenue.

A split decision is emerging in the New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills rematch. Buffalo garnered 71% of the midweek tickets but only 55% of the revenue, meaning that the bigger bettors have a different view than the public in this contest, with New England listed as a 6.5-point favorite. The Patriots beat the Bills 16-10 back in October.

The visiting Bills are surging at 10-4 and are a mind-boggling 6-0-1 against the spread on the road this year. Buffalo has played excellent defense away from home.

Are the Bills, who perennially play in the shadow of the defending champion Patriots, ready to defeat an elite team? Can they go undefeated against the road spread all year? Or did the Patriots, who throttled the Bengals 34-13 last week to snap a two-game losing streak, find something?

We’ll find out. New England clinches the AFC East with a win. Buffalo, because of tiebreakers, needs New England to also lose to Miami the following week to win the division.

The Bills are sick of hearing of Tom Brady’s 31-3 mark against them, the most of any quarterback against one team in league history. Brady has beaten eight Bills head coaches, including current pilot Sean McDermott. But McDermott is being discussed in Coach-of-the-Year circles. Is he ready to get his first win ever over Brady?

This is an interesting Saturday game.

Sharps vs The Chargers

Why are the Oakland Raiders, losers of four straight, receiving nearly three-quarters of the action at major books against the host Los Angeles Chargers as a 6.5-point underdog at DraftKings? The professional crowd, or “sharps” like to play the Chargers as a road dog but veer against them as a home favorite, because the Chargers play in a small stadium and don’t have a typical home-field advantage.

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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, a multiple national award-winning boxing commentator and writer, authors NFL betting columns for the Press of Atlantic City and IGaming Player, among others. He writes significantly about the emerging world of legal New Jersey sports betting.

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