What The ‘Sharps,’ Public Say About NFL Week 4 And An Eagles Win

Posted on September 26, 2019

We have stability.

Several backup quarterbacks, launched into starting roles last week by the rash of injuries, performed well enough to keep NFL betting lines from fluctuating wildly this week.

Most spreads had moved only slightly by midweek, propelling a different, more traditional type of debate: how the public and “sharpies,” the professional bettors, viewed major matchups such as the Patriots-Bills, Chiefs-Lions, and Cowboys-Saints.

The heads of two major NJ sports betting operators presented contrasting views.

Matt Stetz, the COO of Rush Street Interactive, which operates PlaySugarHouse in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, provided the public perception.

Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill outfits in the US, revealed the sharpie angle.

It’s an interesting contrast.

Chiefs, Patriots catching wave of bets at SugarHouse

Stetz said an overwhelming majority of bettors have taken the Patriots -7 at Buffalo and Kansas City -6 at Detroit, despite both home teams being undefeated.

“It’s very interesting that 96% of the early money has come in on the Chiefs playing in Detroit and 91% goes to New England on the road giving seven in Buffalo,” he remarked.

“What it indicates is that the public money is with the two quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes. People like the big-name quarterbacks.”

In the devil’s advocate realm, Josh Allen, playing under the radar in Buffalo, is a fine running quarterback with a deep arm.

“Based on the betting, people think Buffalo is a fluke,” Stetz asserted. “I think he’s the real thing.”

Buffalo is 3-0 to start the season in which it was projected to win just seven games. A victory against New England would remove it from under the radar for the rest of the season. New England and Buffalo are both 2-1 versus the spread this season.

And the NY Giants? It’s all about Daniel Jones

Stetz noted huge expectations this week from Daniel Jones, who led the Giants from a 28-10 second-half hole to an exhilarating 32-31 victory over Tampa Bay. The anticipated carryover against Washington is not only reflected in the line, with the Giants as a 3-point favorite but in the over/under, which moved from 47.5 to 49.5 by midweek.

“I think the bettors have jumped on the bandwagon with him,” Stetz said. “The media is hyping him up, and the early betting is favoring the Giants right now.”

On the SugarHouse Sportsbook line, Kansas City again has the highest over/under total at 54 points. Kansas City and Baltimore cleared their mid-50s hurdle with 61 points last week.

Other tantalizing NFL Week 4 betting matchups include Chicago as a 2.5-point choice against Minnesota and Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite in New Orleans.

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Eagles vs. Packers: Bettors think Birds won’t fly tonight

For the second straight week, Stetz said Philadelphia Eagles country is backing the opponent. They were right last week in favoring Detroit, and two-thirds of them placed their money tonight on Green Bay. The Eagles visit Lambeau Field for the Thursday Night Football game.

“The public does not trust the Eagles much right now,” Stetz said.

After all, this is a team that is 0-3 versus the spread, 2-8 at home against the line going back to last year, and a +4.5-point tonight and facing a Packers team that is 3-0 against the spread this year.

The Eagles are banged up and the line indicates bettors do not expect Carson Wentz to be a magician with this skeleton crew. Especially against Aaron Rodgers.

Sharply opposed: The pros like the dogs

Bogdanovich eyes a collision course between the pro bettors and the public.

“Kansas City and Detroit is the one with major sex appeal,” he said.

“Mahomes has been the talk of the league and the public is behind that but Detroit plus 7 is where we started and it went to 6.5. The sharpies think Detroit is the way to go. We’ll find out Sunday.”

Bogdanovich indicated that the sharpies also like Buffalo to cover versus New England, seizing upon an undefeated home team getting a touchdown.

Another game providing wagering insight is Dallas and New Orleans. It opened at Dallas -3, shifted down to 2 and drifted up to 2.5 by midweek.

It seemed destined to bounce between 2 and 3 points most of the week. The public likes Dallas; the sharpies back New Orleans.

“We’re seeing already that is going to be one of the most heavily bet games this week,” Bogdanovich said.

Payout bonanza: The thrill at William Hill NJ

The spreads on one game may be an infinitesimally small snapshot of a winning-wager portfolio. Players love multiple-team parlays. Get one hot day and hit big. Some richly-rewarded gamblers fit that profile last weekend.

“One ticket week was a nine-team parlay,” Bogdanovich said. “It was a $1,000 ticket with Green Bay on the moneyline, the Vikings on the moneyline, some college games, other pro games, and a soccer game. It paid $65,940!”

The mix-and-match of varied sports produced other big scores.

“We get parlay cards of anywhere from three to 12 teamers. And every combination is hit hard, not just one particular category,” Bogdanovich added. “They all get heavy action. There was a $5,000 eight-team parlay, all on the NFL moneyline, no spreads were involved, and it paid $24,586.

“We had another three teamers, a $3,000 bet on two baseball games and the Carolina Panthers plus three points. It paid $31,500.”

Hey, all it takes is a bankroll, a dream, guts, and luck.

Dave Bontempo Avatar
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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, a multiple national award-winning boxing commentator and writer, authors NFL betting columns for the Press of Atlantic City and IGaming Player, among others. He writes significantly about the emerging world of legal New Jersey sports betting.

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