NFL Week 5 features a rich blend of intrigue.
Buzzword terms include rejuvenated teams, emerging stars, a game in London, and the Impossible Parlay Dream, realized.
Let’s dig in.
Minshew Mania + NFL betting
Jags quarterback Gardner Minshew has proven he can move more than the team in the wake of Nick Foles’ opening-day injury. He can move the bettors.
“Minshew Magic is resonating well with the players,” said Matt Stetz, the COO of Rush Street Interactive, which operates PlaySugarHouse online wagering in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
“He looked excellent in the Denver game,” Stetz said of the comeback Minshew directed last week against the Broncos, resulting in a game-clinching field goal as time expired.
“We are seeing 60% of the betting on the Jags on that game, which is unusual for an underdog,” Stetz indicated regarding Jacksonville getting 3.5 points in Carolina. This game features two formerly 0-2 teams, now 2-2, prospering without their original quarterbacks.
The biggest line movement occurred with Tampa Bay becoming a 3.5-point dog after opening at 5.5 in New Orleans.
Jameis Winston had a terrific game last week as the Bucs shocked the Rams straight up as a 10.5-point underdog. The Bucs, snakebit the previous week on a game-ending missed field goal against the Giants, passed the gut check we referenced before they faced the Rams.
Now they go into an arena where they have had success. Tampa beat New Orleans there last year.
Stetz said that although popular teams receive robust betting support, it has dwindled from the 90-plus percent the previous week.
New England has 80% of the sentiment as a 15.5-point road favorite against winless Washington. The Los Angeles Chargers have 77.5% of the loot against the snake-bitten, winless Broncos, and Eagles fans switched to their side at 76% when Philadelphia hosts the Jets as a 13.5-point favorite.
Eagles fans had wagered against them in the previous two weeks. They were rewarded when the Eagles were beaten by Detroit but lost when Philadelphia stunned Green Bay last Thursday night.
Have A Hunch? Bet A Bunch
When Dak Prescott’s desperation Sunday-night football heave produced what commentator, Al Michaels considered a prayer “not answered,” one bettor disagreed.
The Saints’ 12-10 win over Dallas capped a stunning six-team money-line parlay that turned $11 into $4,300, Stetz said.
Why so much? The combination featured all dogs: the Eagles, Panthers, Titans, Browns, and Jaguars provided an improbable string of road victories. The Saints won at home, but they were also underdogs.
It was a Canine Coronation.
The beautiful aspect of moneyline wagering is the absence of the spread. Payouts will be paltry on small NFL parlays, especially with favorites, but this ticket showed some moxie. And one must still receive breaks.
Jacksonville was down 14 points and won with a field goal on the final play of the game. Imagine waiting on THAT kick.
The $4,300 will buy plenty of blood-pressure pills for that NJ sports betting fan.
Stetz threw out a speculative moneyline combo for this week. It featured the Cardinals, Texans, Ravens, Bears, Jags, Giants, Saints, Chargers, and Cowboys. Just straight winners.
“If I bet $100, my potential payout is $60,889,” he said.
Unlikely? Sure. But so was the $4,300.
Niners Shine at William Hill NJ sportsbook
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill in the US, outlined another glimpse of the public-versus-sharpies sentiment this week.
“The public is on the Kansas City Chiefs this week, along with the 49ers,” he said. “The sharpies (professional gamblers) are strong on Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay. There is also good action both ways on Tampa Bay and Green Bay.”
That’s a great distinction for bettors to absorb. It’s interesting to know who full-time gamblers back, while remembering that even the world’s top handicappers’ clock in around 55%.
Last week was good for the sharpies, as they were on the mark with Detroit covering against Kansas City and New Orleans nosing Dallas. The public, meanwhile, suffered a bad-beat type of fate with New England.
The Patriots failed to cover by a mere half point in many books versus Buffalo, courtesy of a Stephen Gostkowski missed extra point and a Tom Brady interception that took at least three points off the board. Both events happened early, but they decided that cover every bit as if they’d occurred at the end of the game.
Bogdanovich likes the brisk interest in the Tampa Bay and New Orleans game. Both teams come off exhilarating victories. Tampa not only covered 10 against the Rams, but beat them outright. It was also a nice win for the books because it wiped out a string of parlay tickets.
Early in the week, Bogdanovich said the 49ers could reclaim their role as one of America’s favored teams if they began consistently covering. The public anticipates that this week with strong support in their home game versus Cleveland.
“In the NFL people love teams coming off a bye,” Bogdanovich said.
“The bettors apparently feel the team has had two weeks to prepare, they are fresh and healthy. That means more later in the season because teams hate to get byes this early, especially for San Francisco at 3-0. The feeling may be that they can’t wait to get out and play.”
The Lions and Dolphins are on byes this week.
What’s going on in London?
Bogdanovich said the Bears-Raiders game in London won’t hurt business because it starts at the usual time. Past encounters, 9:30 a.m. EST and 6:30 PST, hampered the handle.
As for the game itself, it’s hard to put a line on jet lag. Both teams will fly more than 10 hours in a direction taxing on their bodies.
“The players are in a strange land, eating strange food, it has to affect them,” Bogdanovich stated.
But who does it affect more? That’s impossible to tell. This is not a neutral site game. It’s a neutral continent game.
Bogdanovich shared industry sentiment that Chase Daniel is not a big step down from injured Mitchell Trubisky for Chicago, thus there is no line adjustment.