Breathe a sigh of relief, Eagles bettors.
Order has been restored, the genie has been placed back in the bottle, and bullish optimism returns.
An Eagles win turns the bets in favor of the Birds
The comeback of Bird-Betting nation marks Philadelphia’s home game against the Chicago Bears on Sunday.
The Eagles’ 31-13 thrashing of Buffalo last week brought wagers streaming into SugarHouse sportsbook this week, according to Matt Stetz, the COO of Rush Street Interactive, which operates PlaySugarHouse in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
“It seems as though faith in the Eagles is back,” Stetz said.
“Eighty-three percent of the bettors are backing Philadelphia this week at home. We have had a couple of occasions in which the support for the Eagles was in the 80-percent range (peaking around 90 before the Atlanta game in Week 2), but this was a strong move. One dramatic victory and it seems like they are back on the bandwagon.”
And talking playoffs rather than dismissing the Eagles for the NBA Sixers, also a hot commodity.
Stetz noticed a subtle uptick last week with late wagering driving Philadelphia’s support level from the mid-50s to 64% at kickoff. It has carried forward.
PointsBet echoed the optimism of the Eagles, with 76% of the tickets and 88% of the handle placed upon them for the Chicago game.
The NJ sportsbook also said that faith in the New York Jets and some ambivalence toward the Giants emerged. The Jets opened at -5 for their game in Miami and have received 86% of the tickets and a strong 93% of the spread.
In theory, those totals should drive the point-spread up. What may have happened is Jets bettors are chasing the number down and biting heavily the lower it dips.
Another consideration for this game is that the Dolphins are one of the “hottest” teams at the books, covering three consecutive weeks. Being winless is the real NFL world is a matter of perspective.
The Giants, fresh off a late cover in Detroit, did not spark early enthusiasm with the bettors. Dallas, giving the Giants 7 points on Monday Night Football, received 52% of the wagers and 70% of the handle, PointsBet indicated.
That means a few Dallas backers went heavy.
DraftKings tried to nudge Giants fans on Thursday morning for NFL Week 9, adding half a point to bring the Giants to +7.5.
That will be awfully tempting for a home team in a nationally televised game. DraftKings also moved the Eagles line down to -4.5, prompting the notion that if one likes this team giving five, he/she will love them giving 4.5.
PointsBet party on an Eagles victory
What’s the value of being right by a mile? Check out this winner last week from PointsBet, which has a portion of its platform devoted to margin of victory.
One client took a $50 bet on the Eagles to go OVER 21 points. When the Birds scored 31, 10 more than that, the client won 10 times his stake for a $500 payout.
The wager goes both ways. This one was essentially 10 bucks for every point above or below the total. Had the Eagles been shut out, the wager would have lost more than $1,000. This proposition represents the joy and the risk of going big. And in this case, the joy.
Imagine every quarterback’s passing yards above the line, say 250 yards, being worth $1, $5, $10 or $50. And then multiply it by a 20-yard completion.
SugarHouse parlay wins: Two roads to euphoria
You think these colossal payouts can’t come in. And then they do. Two colossal paydays emerged from different directions at PlaySugarHouse.
Stetz said a bettor turned $5 into a whopping $4,870 by hitting 12 bets, broken down into six two-team parlay hits spread across several sports.
The bettor incorporated the NBA, NFL and World Series into the mix. Basketball provided Portland and an over of 225, the Lakers and over 216, the Grizzlies and over 223 and the Timberwolves and 224. Then it was the Astros and over 7.5 in the World Series, and Green Bay over 48 and giving five to Kansas City on the road in the NFL.
This bettor may send Aaron Rodgers a thank you card. Many quarterbacks might have guided their team to a go-ahead field goal when the Chiefs tied the game 24-24 in the fourth quarter. Fortunately for this player, Rodgers was able to take the Packers all the way in for a 31-24 triumph.
It’s bets like this that attracts many people in the first place. All one needs is the right angle with the right bankroll. This was a longshot paradise coming true.
The opposite unfolded with just two football games when a bettor knew how to leverage financial muscle.
One backer laid out a hefty $45,000 to massage two bets and make $40,000. Less than an even-money return but an admirable score. It unfolded via the use of adjusted lines and the willingness to go big.
He took New England -3, adjusted from 12.5 against Cleveland, and selected Houston at +1/2 point, adjusted from -6.5, against the Raiders.
It was a power move, utilizing financial leverage to reverse discouraging odds. New England became -303 and Houston turned into -270. One would normally stay away from such totals.
But this was not normal.
Financial muscle was the secret ingredient of this play. If enough money is placed on something, a small edge becomes large.
In this case, the teased lines were an excellent hunch. While New England would have covered without it, Houston would not have. The Texans won by three and had to come from behind to do it. The bettor correctly assumed neither home favorite would lose outright and matched it with a staggering bankroll.
Around the league
Will the Pack have people’s back?
Stetz reported an astounding 95% sentiment on Green Bay giving 3.5 at the Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 9. Two factors could be driving the spread. One, the Packers have covered all but twice this year and are perfect against the number on the road. Because they cover “politely,” often beating the spread by less than a field goal, they are not burdened later by unrealistic lines.
Two, the Chargers are not a good home team. They don’t have a real home stadium and haven’t covered the spread at home all year.
Is it time for the contrarian angle? Will the team that always beats the spread on the road deliver against the team that never does? Or is it time for a change? Bettors will be interested.
NFL Week 9 line movement
Joe Flacco’s injury has handcuffed Broncos supporters. Denver opened as 1.5-point favorites against Cleveland at many books and by midweek were getting three at home against a team that is 2-5.
Patrick Mahomes, as we’ve speculated upon throughout his injury, means eight or nine points to the line. Kansas City went from roughly a three-point favorite to a five-point dog when it was confirmed he would not play last Sunday against Green Bay.
So what about this week’s game against Minnesota?
If you could not find it by midweek, you were not alone. Mahomes dropped hints about returning and there was no early line on the game. Books could not decide where to place a line on “The Phantom.”
Chiefs fans wish for him to fully heal before coming back too soon and risk being injured for the duration of the season. But bettors will give Kansas City its share of support if the reigning league MVP returns. FanDuel was the first to list the game, pegging the number at Minnesota -3, but that line could still move.
The highest over-unders around New Jersey sports betting sites concerns Tampa Bay invading Seattle. It was 51.5 at DraftKings.
FanDuel tantalized bettors with some half-point moves. Carolina went from a 4-point favorite to 3.5 against Tennessee.
Seattle changed from a 6-point selection against Tampa Bay to 5.5. New England, lodged most of the week as a 3-point pick in Baltimore on Sunday night, edged up to 3.5.
When the lines move, money is sure to follow. Good luck this week!