When Will New Jersey Online Casino Revenue Stop Growing?

growing

Time flies when you’re having fun.

It seems like just yesterday we were reporting on the launch of online gambling in New Jersey, yet, in just over two months, the NJ online gambling industry will celebrate its fifth anniversary.

In those five years, the industry has had a number of significant accomplishments and reached numerous major milestones.

None more remarkable than the industry’s sustained growth.

Since its inception, New Jersey online gambling revenue has increased each and every month.

That’s a pretty impressive accomplishment considering the industry should be fully mature at this point. Yet somehow, NJ online casinos are still growing and growing significantly.

Not only has the industry seen year-over-year increases every single month, the revenue increases have been by at least 10 percent (and often much higher) for 42 consecutive months.

The last time the New Jersey online gaming industry didn’t grow by double-digits year-over-year was February 2015.

How have New Jersey online casinos done it?

Without going into too much detail, several factors have helped New Jersey extend its growth stage:

  •  New Jersey’s slow start meant it had much further to climb.
  •  A law and regulatory oversight were designed to maximize revenue.
  •  The continual addition of new online casinos and operators to the market.
  • The approval and addition of new casino products, from virtual sports to live dealer games.

What happens when revenue stops growing?

Growth will of course stop at some point.

If we add a trendline to the chart above, things don’t look quite as rosy.

Breaking the NJ online gambling industry down into two distinct periods (January 2015-December 2016 and January 2017-August 2018) really highlights this point.

And…

These charts clearly show the New Jersey online gambling industry trending toward maturity.

Online gaming revenue is still growing by double digits, but growth is slowing down.

The era of online sports betting is upon us

That trend could reverse again… depending on how you calculate online revenue.

NJ sports betting isn’t included in the August numbers listed above.

In its first month, online sports betting generated more than $3 million in August. The fledgling industry is on the move, despite only a single operator (DraftKings Sportsbook) for most of the month and in a historically slow month on the sports betting calendar.

Basically, if you include online sports betting, online gaming revenue is going to grow by several million dollars each and every month for at least a year.

In the same breath, sports betting is a far more volatile industry. Even though it will produce larger gains over the next 12 months, there’s a very good possibility that mixing online sports revenue with online gaming revenue will bring on the industry’s first Y/Y decline much sooner.

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Steve Ruddock

About

Steve covers nearly every angle of online poker in his job as a full-time freelance poker writer. His primary focus is the developing legal and legislative picture for regulated US online poker and gambling.