During the first year of regulated US Oscars betting, Best Picture remained fairly wide open and a mystery right up until the Academy Awards ceremony.
In this second year of Oscars betting, we have a heavy betting favorite on our hands.
With this past weekend’s Director’s Guild of America win, 1917 is the movie to beat in the Best Picture race.
There are a couple of films still on its tail, but the bulk of the field is most definitely drawing dead.
Trending up: 1917 has a 75%-80% chance of winning
The WWI film 1917 now has consensus across the Golden Globes, Producers Guild of America, and the Director’s Guild of America. So, this has happened a total of 16 times in roughly 30 years. In 13 of those instances, the film went on to win Best Picture.
Here is a look at the exceptions to the rule:
Saving Private Ryan (1998)
Brokeback Mountain (2005)
La La Land (2017)
And here are the films that won instead:
Shakespeare in Love (1998)
The good news for Parasite is that two of the three films that ended up winning the Oscar won the SAG Award for the best ensemble cast. That is one of the only major awards that Parasite has managed to nab the past two weeks.
The bad news for Parasite is that the next benchmark is the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTAs). Given that 1917 is a largely British production, it is effectively a home game for what is already the movie favored by the odds.
When Oscars odds first came out, 1917 wasn’t even favored. Now, the cheapest it is available is at -212 at Fox Bet.
Trending down: Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The best hope for Parasite and Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood have is that there will be a split between Best Picture and Best Director.
It is increasingly inevitable that 1917 will win Best Picture. The hope for these films was that the Director’s Guild would generate some much-needed support to get them back in the race.
Instead, both the DGA and the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) honored 1917. It doesn’t help Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood that living cinematography legend Roger Deakins was behind the lens for the technical marvel that is 1917.
Drawing dead: Everyone else
Let’s be frank. Best Picture is essentially a three-horse race, with Tarantino’s horse desperately trying to stay in contention.
Meanwhile, all the other Best Picture hopefuls are out to pasture.
While they may not take the top trophy, each could take home an Oscar as all the Best Picture nominees did last year.
Here is a look at the also-rans and which categories are the most likely to earn them an award on Oscars night:
- Ford v. Ferrari: Best Editing, Best Sound Design, Best Sound Editing
- Little Women: Best Costume Design, Best Adapted Screenplay
- The Irishman: Best Adapted Screenplay
- Joker: Best Actor, Best Original Score
- Jojo Rabbit: Best Costume Design
- Marriage Story: Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay