Prop Up Those Birds: Philadelphia Eagles Seeking First Win Versus AFC West

Written By Dave Bontempo on November 12, 2021

Two NJ sports betting themes preceded the Philadelphia Eagles versus Denver Broncos NFL Week 10 matchup.

New Jersey online gamblers seized the opportunity, laying financial green on Eagles green when the line was Philadelphia +3 at midweek. Bird Bettors recorded 79% of the DraftKings Sportsbook spread and prompted a line shift.

Upstep Broncos bettors, who see an opportunity at Denver -2.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook. For them, it paid to wait.

Bettors on both sides played this smartly.

They saved the juice of 15- to 20 basis points with a well-timed wager. Buying half a point on either side of the line drives many bets from the -110 to -125 range. It’s a less attractive profit, albeit a worthwhile tradeoff to increase the chance of cashing the ticket.

NJ sports betting lines for Eagles vs. Broncos game

Eagles versus Broncos prop bets emerging at DraftKings

Birds quarterback Jalen Hurts over-under rushing yards of 47.5. As of Friday morning, it’s -110 on the over and -120 for the over. Hurts is always a running threat. If he is forced to go well above that number, the rest of the Eagles offense could be having difficulty.

Jordan Howard’s rushing yardage total is 48.5. That’s -115 both ways. It’s a tantalizing number. He had 17 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 27-24 setback to the Los Angeles Chargers.  Howard got more carries than Boston Scott. If he’s the lead back, this is reachable.

Tight end Dallas Goedert has a yardage total of 45.5, with the same -115 on each side. He could be due for a productive game.

DeVonta Smith has an over-under of 58.5, with -120 for the over and -110 on the under. He had 116 yards last week and looks like a force when Hurts wants to find him.

The Eagles running game will influence this prop.  If it is successful, Smith will have a little less attention shown to him. Smith grabbed his second TD of the season last week versus the Chargers. Do the Eagles want to use him more?

Quez Watkins has an over-under of 27.5 yards at -120 on the over and -110 for the under. He could get that on one catch.

For Denver, Melvin Gordon over-under at 48.5 rushing yards with -120 for the over and -110 on the under. He splits time with Javonte Williams and is a viable threat to hit this if Denver employs its usual ball-control offense.

Willams had 111 yards in Denver’s 30-16 triumph over the Dallas Cowboys last week.  Gordon rushed for 80.

How Eagles and Broncos enter NFL Week 10

The Eagles are 0-3 against AFC West teams this season.  They have recorded one total sack against the Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders and Chargers.

All games against the AFC West have thus hit the over and this one in the mid-40s looks reasonable, especially if the Eagles apply enough defensive pressure to make Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater throw.

They have to. The Eagles have allowed a pass-completion average above 75%, with the league record being 72.7% from the 2016 Detroit Lions. The Eagles have applied little pass rush and failed to jam the short passing routes.

They have been heavily criticized for this all week. What does that mean?  They will likely bring pressure.  They may sack Bridgewater. Or, he may throw quick passes to Broncos receivers Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton.

If nothing else, a pass rush will help the over by halting the clock-killing, run-dominant Denver attack.

The bettors like an over here. DraftKings reported 90% favored the over 46 total, which later went to 45.5.

Eagles games have hit the over two straight weeks.

Denver, 5-4, is part of an AFC West logjam in which each team has five wins.

The Broncos come in with consecutive triumphs against the Washington Football Team and Dallas. And both were on the under.

That’s been their comfort zone this year. Broncos games are 7-2 on the under as they employ a run-first offense.

Eagles vs. Broncos get late Sunday NJ sports betting window

The game also will be popular throughout the NFL because it’s in an isolated four-game afternoon window and starts at 4:25 p.n.

“The Eagles and Broncos shapes up as a decent game between a couple of name teams,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told PlayNJ. “The Eagles have a big following; the Broncos have a big following and New Jersey and Colorado are two jurisdictions in which we do great business.

“We’re going to write a lot of business on that game. Another big thing working for it is that this is the last of the afternoon kickoffs. That’s going to isolate this game pretty well,” said Avello.

Denver delivered big for books

The Broncos did more than light the New Jersey-Philadelphia betting corridor with “How ’bout them Cowboys” chants. Their thrashing of Dallas came as a 9.5-point dog at DraftKings, which was significant.

Denver was part of a 1-2 punch that delivered a DraftKings ransom to Avello’s book.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had the other half, prevailing at +14.5 against the Buffalo Bills, the largest win by a dog this season. These results torched numerous moneyline parlays and high-leverage bets on the seemingly prohibitive favorites, bringing relief to the books.

Chalk bettors had pounded the operators all season but these Week 9 upsets, combined with the New York Jets topping the Cincinnati Bengals and the New Orleans Saints beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers one week earlier, brought the books back.

“The Buffalo result last week, in particular, was one of the best games, ever, for us,” Avello said. “… All that juice for a little bit of profit boosted that game up to a high handle. That game had a ton of money on Buffalo.”

And the result got the book off the hook-on expensive parlays.

“Usually in the NFL, we are going to have some good weeks, some bad weeks and sometimes a couple of them come together,” said Avello, who was equally philosophical when the books were getting pounded by the favorites about a month ago.

What about this week?

Odds at other NJ sportsbooks

Caesars Sportsbook has a first drive prop.

Here are the Eagles odds:

  • Punt +118
  • Touchdown +340
  • Field goal attempt +390
  • Turnover +460

Here are the Broncos odds

  • Punt +104
  • Touchdown +265
  • Field goal attempt +360
  • Turnover +490

FanDuel Sportsbook customers can look at combo scenarios.

Eagles +2.5 and the total is over 44.5 points is +240.

Eagles +2.5 and under 44.5 is +290.

Denver -2.5 and over 44 is +240.

Denver -2.5 and under 44.5 is +280.

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

 

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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, a multiple national award-winning boxing commentator and writer, authors NFL betting columns for the Press of Atlantic City and others. He writes about all major sports in the booming legal New Jersey sports betting industry. Dave also hosts the Why Eagles Why podcast. Dave is a member of the New Jersey Boxing Hall of Fame and the Atlantic City International Boxing Hall of Fame.

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