2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

Welcome to the famed Kentucky Derby, and its 146th running at Churchill Downs on Sept. 5. Post time is 3 p.m.

Twenty of the nation’s top three-year-old thoroughbreds compete in the event dubbed the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.” It’s also called “The Run for the Roses” due to the garland of 554 red roses draped over the winner.

First run in 1875, this event is considered the first major thoroughbred race of the season, captivating the public and elevating the stature of the sport. It is the signature first jewel of racing’s Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes two weeks later and the Belmont Stakes three weeks beyond that.

The 2020 Kentucky Derby was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Its original date of May 2 was moved to Sept. 5, making it the second leg of the Triple Crown in 2020.

Wagering has become prolific, with unofficial counts indicating more than $165 million being bet on it through varied forms last year. Here’s a Kentucky Derby primer and guide for racing and betting fans in New Jersey. Learn more about the race, Derby betting odds, changing history, some memorable moments, and key handicapping variables.

Best Kentucky Derby betting app in NJ

How to bet on the Derby in NJ

If you are one of the 100,000+ fans who like to watch the race live, head to Churchill Downs in Kentucky to place your bet on Derby Day. But if that is not your first choice, New Jersey offers a slate of horse betting options.

• New Jersey racetracks: There are three active racetracks in NJ that have betting on horses and are simulcast facilities. The Meadowlands, Monmouth Park and Freehold Raceway are simulcast facilities. All three will take bets on the Derby.
• Off-track betting facilities: New Jersey has a host of off-track betting facilities in and around the state, all of which offer Derby betting.
• Atlantic City casinos: Borgata is the only casino in NJ with a racebook. Simulcast is also available.
• Bet online: In New Jersey, betting online is easy and legal. Visit 4NJBets, powered by TVG, to open an account and bet on horses.

2021 Kentucky Derby odds

Bookmark this page as we will be updating with current odds once the Kentucky Derby field is set.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Odds
1	Finnick the Fierce	M. Garcia	Scratched
2	Max Player	R. Santana Jr.	30-1
3	Enforceable	A. Beschizza	30-1
4	Storm the Court	J. Leparoux	50-1
5	"Major Fed"	J. Graham	50-1
6	King Guillermo	S. Camacho	Scratched
7	Money Moves	J. Castellano	30-1
8	South Bend	T. Gaffalione	50-1
9	Mr. Big News	G. Saez	50-1
10	Thousand Word	F. Geroux	15-1
11	"Necker Island"	M. Mena	50-1
12	Sole Volante	L. Panici	30-1
13	Attachment Rate	J. Talamo	50-1
14	Winning Impression	J. Rocco Jr.	50-1
15	Ny Traffic	P. Lopez	20-1
16	Honor A. P.	M. Smith	5-1
17	Tiz the Law	M. Franco	3-5
18	Authentic	J. Velazquez	8-1

Common bet types for Kentucky Derby

• Win: Selecting the top horse. Odds are reasonable for any winner in this race, given the top competition. The minimum bet is usually $2.
• Place: A horse to finish second or higher.
• Show: A horse to finish third or higher.
• Exactas: Selecting the order of the top two finishers. It’s always good to box them. You’d hate to have the right two horses in the wrong order.
• Trifectas: Picking the top three finishers. Wagered via straight bet, a box of three or more horses, or a partial wheel.
• The latter option involves taking one’s favorite horse in the first position, with several additional selections in the second and third slot. It can also be wagered by placing one’s favorite horse in the second or third position with the other selections. The key is the horse must finish in the exact spot where he is played and the others must finish in the top 3.
• Superfecta: Picking the top four horses. Same combinations for trifectas can be uses. The superfecta is often lucrative, but extremely hard to hit.

Costs for many common bets

A $1 trifecta box with three horses cost $6. A $1 trifecta box with four horses cost $24. The $1 superfecta box with four horses is $24.

Thinking razzle-dazzle? A $1 key, putting your favorite horse in the first position and three others in the second and third slots, is $6. For $12, you can place four horses in the second and third slots. The “key” for this bet is that your favorite horse must win the race.

The same principle applies in putting your horse in the second position.

Derby betting strategy

If you love a particular horse to win, invest strongly on the win line. The worst feeling for many players is to pick the winner of a race and not cash because the horses in second and third place were not the ones you played.

If you believe the favorites will run in the top two spots, consider playing a hefty exacta box.

Another option is to play one’s two favorite horses in the first and second slots, place a few others in the third and fourth positions, and have pretty good coverage on a potentially lucrative superfecta for reasonable money.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby

While there have been some impressive longshot winners (Donerail 91-1, 1913; Giacomo, 50-1, 2005; Mine That Bird, 50-1, 2009), the race has been dominated by favorites in recent years.

It happened by design with a rule change that alters the makeup of the race. For bettors, it’s good to know the race is now tilted toward favorites.

Before 2012, horses qualified for the Derby-based on earnings of stakes races.

That changed with the Road to the Kentucky Derby system implemented for qualifying races. It completely disregards sprint races and places heavy weight on recent results. Sprinters don’t have a place in this Derby. A horse must be effective at a long distance to have a chance at entering the field.

How it works

The points system has changed the way horses are prepared for the Derby, the composition of the field, and how the race itself is run given the absence of pure sprinters that normally ensure a fast early pace.

This means there are now fewer “speed duels,” which compromise distance horses by locking them into a sizzling early pace with sprinters.

In earlier years, that had set the stage for the front runners to tire and be overtaken in the stretch. Mine That Bird and Giacomo, for instance, rallied from nearly last to first.

The pace change means the early leaders run the first half-mile in roughly 47 seconds, rather than the 45-ish area they had been pushed into with previous speed duels. Horses now get into position around the first turn and their jockeys then try to relax them so they can fire on all cylinders during the home stretch.

There have been far fewer lead changes in recent Kentucky Derbys. Horses that have been starting in the back of the pack have been staying there.

In recent years, the “chalk” (industry jargon for favorites) has been able to “talk the talk and walk the walk.”

Previous Kentucky Derby winners (under the new format)

Year	Horse	Odds
2014	California Chrome	5-2
2015	American Pharoah	5-2
2016	Nyquist	2-1
2017	Always Dreaming	9-2
2018	Justify	5-2

Has there ever been a disqualification in the Kentucky Derby?

Yes. The first one happened in 2019 when Maximum Security was denied the Derby crown.

Maximum Security triumphed and was taken down 22 minutes later because of alleged interference with other horses on the final turn.

Racing purists cried foul over the disqualification because rugged traffic conditions and jostling on the turn happen in each Derby and come with the logistics of a 20-horse field. More glaring collisions over the years have been ignored.

The controversy called attention to the large 20-horse field and the presence of spectators along the backstretch rail who are not there for most races throughout the year.

Spectators can startle a horse into making a sudden move in the wrong direction.

Country House, a 65-1 choice, was placed first. About $9 million was lost by Maximum Security bettors because of the disqualification.

How good was Maximum Security after this race? He just pocketed $10 million for his connections by winning the $20 million Saudi Cup, the richest horse-race ever, on Feb. 28.

Betting tips for the 2021 Kentucky Derby

Before betting on the Derby in New Jersey, it’s important to note a few things about the track and check in on the details via the Daily Racing Form. For instance, the listing of track conditions is important.

They are:

1. Fast: Normal, and ideal
2. Good: A heavy, often muddy and tiring track, which usually occurs a day after heavy rain. Speed horses can do poorly in these conditions. Horses from the back of the pack can make big rallies.
3. Sloppy: Wet. Horses can’t easily get footing, early front-runners do well because they are flinging wet mud into the face of horses behind them.

Information on how horses run on different surfaces will be available in the Daily Racing Form, too. More on that below.

The surface of the track is paramount.

If there is heavy rain, as there was for the 2019 Derby, it will be difficult to assess the merit of each horse. Running in the “slop” will adversely affect many horses. Some can run well on slop. Some hate it.

If you can get an angle on a horse you like, in the slop, be partial to early speed. Maximum Security went from 10-1 one night beforehand to 9-2 by race time last year because the skies opened up just before the race and he was a good speed horse.

That foresight proved to be right. He led most of the way and rallied at the finish.

How to read a Daily Racing Form

Pick up the Daily Racing Form. Local stores or a simulcast facility will have them.

The form shows the running pattern of every horse in each of his races. If you see a listing like 1-1-1-3-3-4, it means the horse broke quickly but could not sustain the pace and faded. You would think this horse unlikely to win if another horse also broke quickly, but would be dangerous if no other horse showed early speed.

If you see something like 4-4-4-3-3-3-2-2-2-1-1 it means the horse can rally and that his running style is “off the pace.” You would want to see an indication that the front speed could tire before playing this horse.

The indicator would be multiple horses showing they like to run near the front early.

The tricky part of this is that there is often more than one horse fitting each type of running style.

Guess that’s why they call it gambling.

In the Racing Form, you can find track conditions for fast (fst), good (gd), or slop (usually slp) next to a horse’s race. There is also a Wet number (normally 200-350) that can be measured against others, to indicate how a horse is likely to compete on the sloppy track.

What are Beyer figures?

Absolutely relevant.

Beyer figures will be in black, indicating the horse’s performance on a given day relative to track conditions. Potential Derby winners will have numbers in the 90s and above 100. You will want to respect any horse with a Beyer figure above 100.

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby

Although significant attention goes to fall and winter races, the Kentucky Derby picture gains full focus with a series of prep races in March and April.

The winner of the Kentucky Derby invariably wins one of these preps.

These events provide matchups between horses that will be helpful in your Kentucky Derby betting. They will also provide a sense of which of these races was run fastest, thus giving a glimpse of who might be the best horse on Sept. 5.

They can also deliver some insight about exacta and trifecta wagering. If two horses finish noses apart in a prep race, they might be a good Kentucky Derby exacta bet or both can be placed in a trifecta wager.

For many of these horses, this will be their final appearance before the Derby.

2021 Kentucky Derby prep races

Below is a list of the prep races to watch for some early handicapping. If you can’t watch or bet these races live, they are ultimately available on YouTube and can be used for assessing Derby hopefuls. Due to the global pandemic in 2020, some races were postponed to later in the summer.

Note that three of the last four Florida Derby winners have captured the Kentucky Derby. One theory is that the race, which usually comes exactly five weekends before the Kentucky Derby, is an ideal space between races.

Race	Date	Location	Distance
Louisiana Derby	March 21	Fairgrounds Race Course, Louisiana	1 3/16 miles
Florida Derby	March 28	Gulfstream Park, Florida	1 1/8 miles
Wood Memorial	TBD	Aqueduct Race Track, New York	1 1/8 miles
Blue Grass Stakes	July 11	Keeneland Race Course, Kentucky	1 1/8 miles
Santa Anita Derby	June 6	Santa Anita Park, California	1 1/8 miles
Arkansas Derby	May 2	Oaklawn Park, Arkansas	1 1/8 miles

Prep races and Kentucky Derby winners

Here’s a look at the final prep race and how they finished for the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners:

Year	Horse	Last Prep Race	Place
2019	Country House*	Louisiana Derby	Fourth
2018	Justify	Santa Anita Derby	First
2017	Always Dreaming	Florida Derby	First
2016	Nyquist	Florida Derby	First
2015	American Pharoah	Arkansas Derby	First
2014	California Chrome	Santa Anita Derby	First
2013	Orb	Florida Derby	First
2012	I'll Have Another	Santa Anita Derby	First
2011	Animal Kingdom	Spiral Stakes	First
2010	Super Saver	Arkansas Derby	Second
2009	Mine That Bird	Sunland Derby	Fourth
2008	Big Brown	Florida Derby	First
2007	Street Sense	Blue Grass	Second
2006	Barbaro	Florida Derby	First
2005	Giacomo	Santa Anita Derby	Fourth
2004	Smarty Jones	Arkansas Derby	First
2003	Funny Cide	Wood Memorial	Second
2002	War Emblem	Illinois Derby	First
2001	Monarchos	Florida Derby	First
2000	Fusaichi Pegasus	Wood Memorial	First

Kentucky Derby race history

The Kentucky Derby may very well be the most popular sports event in the US. In fact, the Derby has become a multi-million-dollar spectacle.

More than 150,000 fans jam into Churchill Downs to watch it live. The Derby garners more attendance than other major sports events including the World Series, Super Bowl, and NCAA Final Four.

Its storied history began on May 17, 1875, when the Louisville Jockey Club sponsored the first Kentucky Derby. Fifteen three-year-old thoroughbred horses raced 1 1/2 miles. Aristides was the first winner of the Derby.

Over the course of decades, the Derby has seen its fair share of changes. In 1883, the track is named Churchill Downs for the first time. The length of the race was shortened to 1 1/4 miles starting in 1896. And the red rose became the official flower of the Derby in 1904.

By 1931, the Kentucky Derby is permanently scheduled for the first Saturday of May. This allowed the three key races of the Triple Crown — Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes — to have a consistent schedule.

There have been only 13 Triple Crown winners in horse racing history: Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978), American Pharoah (2015), and Justify (2018).

Which horse is the GOAT in Kentucky Derby history?

Secretariat did something in the 1973 Kentucky Derby that never occurred before, or since. He ran each quarter of a mile faster than the one before. That made him a logical choice to run even better in the 1973 Belmont Stakes which he did, smashing the runner-up by a record 31 lengths.

Secretariat’s 1:59.40 winning time remains the Kentucky Derby record. It was also the first Derby run in under two minutes. The second was from the horse who finished second in that race, Sham, who was two lengths back at roughly 1:59.80.

The third was Monarchos, who romped home with a time of 1:59.97 in 2001.

Secretariat is still considered the gold standard of Kentucky Derby racing. Because the distance of 1 1/4 miles never changes, horses can be compared from different eras. One second in horse racing is equivalent to about five lengths.

By that barometer, Secretariat would still be defeating modern-age winners handily. He would romp not only over other Kentucky Derby winners, but Triple Crown winners.

Want to compare and have some fun checking the myriad list of Derby winners?

Assess five lengths for every one-second difference between the winning time of Secretariat and the others and you can project how Secretariat would have done against previous Derby winners.

He would have beaten Justify, the last Triple Crown winner, by roughly 25 lengths in the Derby!

Kentucky Derby winners, 1875-2019

This is a list of every Kentucky Derby and shows not only rich history, but the unparalleled success of Secretariat. Enjoy it and good luck at the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

Year	Horse	Jockey	Time
2019	Country House	Flavien Prat	2:03.98
2018	Justify *	Mike E. Smith	2:04.20
2017	Always Dreaming	John R. Velazquez	2:03.59
2016	Nyquist	Mario Gutierrez	02:01:31
2015	American Pharoah *	Victor Espinoza	2:03.02
2014	California Chrome	Victor Espinoza	2:03.66
2013	Orb	Joel Rosario	2:02.89
2012	I'll Have Another	Mario Gutierrez	2:01.83
2011	Animal Kingdom	John Velazquez	2:02.04
2010	Super Saver	Calvin Borel	2:04.45
2009	Mine That Bird	Calvin Borel	2:02.66
2008	Big Brown	Kent Desormeaux	2:01.82
2007	Street Sense	Calvin Borel	2:02.17
2006	Barbaro	Edgar Prado	2:01.36
2005	Giacomo	Mike Smith	2:02.75
2004	Smarty Jones	Stewart Elliott	2:04.06
2003	Funny Cide	José Santos	2:01.19
2002	War Emblem	Victor Espinoza	2:01.13
2001	Monarchos	Jorge Chavez	1:59.97
2000	Fusaichi Pegasus	Kent Desormeaux	02:01
1999	Charismatic	Chris Antley	2:03.29
1998	Real Quiet	Kent Desormeaux	2:02 1/5
1997	Silver Charm	Gary Stevens	2:02 2/5
1996	Grindstone	Jerry Bailey	02:01
1995	Thunder Gulch	Gary Stevens	2:01 1/5
1994	Go for Gin	Chris McCarron	2:03 3/5
1993	Sea Hero	Jerry Bailey	02:02
1992	Lil E. Tee	Pat Day	02:03
1991	Strike the Gold	Chris Antley	02:03
1990	Unbridled	Craig Perret	02:02
1989	Sunday Silence	Patrick Valenzuela	02:05
1988	Winning Colors	Gary Stevens	2:02 1/5
1987	Alysheba	Chris McCarron	02:03
1986	Ferdinand	William Shoemaker	2:02 4/5
1985	Spend a Buck	Angel Cordero, Jr.	2:00 1/5
1984	Swale	Laffit Pincay, Jr.	2:02 2/5
1983	Sunny's Halo	Eddie Delahoussaye	2:02 1/5
1982	Gato Del Sol	Eddie Delahoussaye	2:02 2/5
1981	Pleasant Colony	Jorge Velasquez	02:02
1980	Genuine Risk	Jacinto Vasquez	02:02
1979	Spectacular Bid	Ronnie Franklin	2:02 2/5
1978	Affirmed *	Steve Cauthen	2:01 1/5
1977	Seattle Slew *	Jean Cruguet	2:02 1/5
1976	Bold Forbes	Angel Cordero, Jr.	2:01 3/5
1975	Foolish Pleasure	Jacinto Vasquez	02:02
1974	Cannonade	Angel Cordero, Jr.	02:04
1973	Secretariat *	Ron Turcotte	1:59 2/5
1972	Riva Ridge	Ron Turcotte	2:01 4/5
1971	Canonero II	Gustavo Avila	2:03 1/5
1970	Dust Commander	Mike Manganello	2:03 2/5
1969	Majestic Prince	William Hartack	2:01 4/5
1968	Forward Pass	Ismael Valenzuela	2:02 1/5
1967	Proud Clarion	Robert Ussery	2:00 3/5
1966	Kauai King	Don Brumfield	02:02
1965	Lucky Debonair	William Shoemaker	2:01 1/5
1964	Northern Dancer	William Hartack	02:00
1963	Chateaugay	Braulio Baeza	2:01 4/5
1962	Decidedly	William Hartack	2:00 2/5
1961	Carry Back	John Sellers	02:04
1960	Venetian Way	William Hartack	2:02 2/5
1959	Tomy Lee	William Shoemaker	2:02 1/5
1958	Tim Tam	Ismael Valenzuela	02:05
1957	Iron Liege	William Hartack	2:01 1/5
1956	Needles	David Erb	2:03 2/5
1955	Swaps	William Shoemaker	2:01 4/5
1954	Determine	Raymond York	02:03
1953	Dark Star	Henry Moreno	02:02
1952	Hill Gail	Eddie Arcaro	2:01 3/5
1951	Count Turf	Conn McCreary	2:02 3/5
1950	Middleground	William Boland	2:01 3/5
1949	Ponder	Steve Brooks	2:04 1/5
1948	Citation *	Eddie Arcaro	2:05 2/5
1947	Jet Pilot	Eric Guerin	2:06 4/5
1946	Assault *	Warren Mehrtens	2:06 3/5
1945	Hoop Jr.	Eddie Arcaro	02:07
1944	Pensive	Conn McCreary	2:04 1/5
1943	Count Fleet *	John Longden	02:04
1942	Shut Out	Wayne D. Wright	2:04 2/5
1941	Whirlaway *	Eddie Arcaro	2:01 2/5
1940	Gallahadion	Carroll Bierman	02:05
1939	Johnstown	James Stout	2:03 2/5
1938	Lawrin	Eddie Arcaro	2:04 4/5
1937	War Admiral *	Charle Kurtsinger	2:03 1/5
1936	Bold Venture	Ira Hanford	2:03 3/5
1935	Omaha *	William Saunders	02:05
1934	Cavalcade	Mack Garner	02:04
1933	Brokers Tip	Don Meade	2:06 4/5
1932	Burgoo King	Basil James	2:05 1/5
1931	Twenty Grand	Charle Kurtsinger	2:01 4/5
1930	Gallant Fox *	Earl Sande	2:07 3/5
1929	Clyde Van Dusen	Linus McAtee	2:10 4/5
1928	Reigh Count	Charle Lang	2:10 2/5
1927	Whiskery	Linus McAtee	02:06
1926	Bubbling Over	Albert Johnson	2:03 4/5
1925	Flying Ebony	Earl Sande	2:07 3/5
1924	Black Gold	John D. Mooney	2:05 1/5
1923	Zev	Earl Sande	2:05 2/5
1922	Morvich	Albert Johnson	2:04 3/5
1921	Behave Yourself	Charles Thompson	2:04 1/5
1920	Paul Jones	Ted Rice	02:09
1919	Sir Barton *	John Loftus	2:09 4/5
1918	Exterminator	William Knapp	2:10 4/5
1917	Omar Khayyam	Charles Borel	2:04 3/5
1916	George Smith	John Loftus	02:04
1915	Regret	Joe Notter	2:05 2/5
1914	Old Rosebud	John McCabe	2:03 2/5
1913	Donerail	Roscoe Goose	2:04 4/5
1912	Worth	Carroll Hugh Shilling	2:09 2/5
1911	Meridian	George Archibald	02:05
1910	Donau	Robert Herbert	2:06 2/5
1909	Wintergreen	Vincent Powers	2:08 1/5
1908	Stone Street	Arthur Pickens	2:15 1/5
1907	Pink Star	Andy Minder	2:12 3/5
1906	Sir Huon	Roscoe Troxler	2:08 4/5
1905	Agile	Jack Martin	2:10 3/4
1904	Elwood	Frank Prior	2:08 1/2
1903	Judge Himes	Harold Booker	02:09
1902	Alan-a-Dale	Jimmy Winkfield	2:08 3/4
1901	His Eminence	Jimmy Winkfield	2:07 3/4
1900	Lieut. Gibson	Jimmy Boland	2:06 1/2
1899	Manuel	Fred Taral	02:12
1898	Plaudit	Willie Simms	02:09
1897	Typhoon II	Buttons Garner	2:12 1/2
1896	Ben Brush	Willie Simms	2:07 3/4
1895	Halma	Soup Perkins	2:37 1/2
1894	Chant	Frank Goodale	02:41
1893	Lookout	Eddie Kunze	2:39 1/4
1892	Azra	Alonzo Clayton	2:41 1/2
1891	Kingman	Isaac Murphy	2:52 1/4
1890	Riley	Isaac Murphy	02:45
1889	Spokane	Thomas Kiley	2:34 1/2
1888	Macbeth II	George Covington	2:38 1/4
1887	Montrose	Isaac Lewis	2:39 1/4
1886	Ben Ali	Paul Duffy	2:36 1/2
1885	Joe Cotton	Erkine Henderson	2:37 1/4
1884	Buchanan	Isaac Murphy	2:40 1/4
1883	Leonatus	William Donohue	02:43
1882	Apollo	Babe Hurd	2:40 1/4
1881	Hindoo	James McLaughlin	02:40
1880	Fonso	George Garret Lewis	2:37 1/2
1879	Lord Murphy	Charlie Shauer	02:37
1878	Day Star	Jimmy Carter	2:37 1/4
1877	Baden-Baden	William Walker	02:38
1876	Vagrant	Bobby Swim	2:38 1/4
1875	Aristides	Oliver Lewis	2:37 3/4

* Denotes Triple Crown winners.