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Americans are expected to wager $29.5 billion through regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, virtually unchanged from the $29.4 billion estimated for last season.
The forecast comes as New Jersey sportsbooks face increasing competition from prediction markets offering contracts on NFL games and other sporting events.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) attributed the stalled growth partly to the expansion of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The trade group argues that those platforms divert wagering activity, tax revenue and regulatory oversight from state-licensed sportsbooks.
NFL betting growth projected at less than 1%
The difference between the AGA’s rounded estimates represents growth of roughly 0.3%, which the organization characterized as flat year over year.
The projection covers the entire NFL betting calendar, including preseason games, futures accepted as early as March, the regular season, playoffs, and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
The $29.5 billion represents handle, or the total amount wagered, rather than the revenue sportsbooks retain after paying winning customers.
The AGA did not provide individual forecasts for New Jersey or other regulated markets. The national projection therefore does not necessarily indicate that NFL betting will remain flat in the Garden State.
New Jersey takes prediction market dispute to Supreme Court
The AGA’s forecast arrived days after New Jersey asked the US Supreme Court to resolve whether prediction markets can offer sports contracts without complying with state gambling laws.
Attorney General Jennifer Davenport filed the petition on Sept. 2. It asks the court to review a decision preventing New Jersey from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports contracts.
Kalshi maintains that its contracts are financial products overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). New Jersey argues that contracts based on sporting outcomes function as sports wagers and should remain subject to state regulation.
The distinction matters because prediction markets do not operate under the same New Jersey licensing system as sportsbooks approved by the Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE).
The Supreme Court has not yet agreed to hear the case or ruled on the legality of sports prediction markets.
Age limits and customer protections differ
Customers must be at least 21 years old to wager through a licensed New Jersey sportsbook. Kalshi generally allows users to participate beginning at age 18.
The AGA estimates that users ages 18 to 20 have generated more than $5.1 billion in sports trading volume on Kalshi this year. The nationwide estimate does not show how much came from New Jersey residents.
Licensed sportsbooks must follow New Jersey requirements covering age and identity verification, responsible gambling protections, integrity monitoring and customer disputes. They must also report their wagering activity to the state and pay taxes on sports wagering revenue.
Prediction market trades are not included in the DGE’s monthly sports betting reports and do not generate New Jersey sports wagering tax revenue.
The AGA estimates that prediction markets have diverted more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming taxes nationwide since 2025. It did not provide a New Jersey-specific estimate.
NJ sportsbooks enter NFL season after record July
New Jersey sportsbooks recorded strong year-over-year growth in July shortly before the NFL season.
NJ sportsbooks accepted approximately $816.9 million in wagers during July, setting a state record for the month and increasing 23.6% from July 2025.
Operators generated $97 million in gross sports wagering revenue, up 29.7% from the previous year. However, revenue through the first seven months of 2026 remained 2.7% below the same period in 2025.
Monthly reports released during football season will show whether New Jersey sportsbooks continue July’s growth as prediction markets expand their sports offerings.
